Mapping a path to the White House
By MARK J. PENN | 8/19/08 4:42 AM EST

During the Super Bowl, the seventh game of the World Series and the “American Idol” finale, Americans can be counted on to sit in front of their television sets. The same is true of the quadrennial political conventions. America is a country that tunes in for a good contest.

This year, the party that wins the battle of the conventions will likely win the election. In the past 60 years, few presidential candidates have overcome negative poll numbers taken after the conventions. While races have gotten closer and debates have had an effect, nothing in the months between convention and election has swayed the voters’ preferences.

In modern times, conventions have become infomercials: They are valuable opportunities to consolidate the parties’ bases, reach out to swing voters, outline the parties’ substantive agendas and burn into the minds of voters the biographies of the nominees. Television producers, moviemakers, consultants and speechwriters carefully hone every scene and every word to deliver a message to the country.

In recent cycles, the convention battleground has determined whether the election will be about the economy or about national security. With few exceptions, the Republicans fight for security while the Democrats fight for the economy. The winner of that battle usually wins. Barack Obama’s campaign has, in my view, two main objectives for its convention: It must end the question of any remaining Clinton-Obama delegate tensions and close the sale with the voters. The party is blessed with few divisive issues, a motivated and growing electorate, and an easy target in President Bush, who has far lower ratings than President Bill Clinton ever did, even in the worst days of his eight years in office.

In current polls, Obama is getting just over 75 percent of the Democratic vote. He needs to increase that to 85 percent or more to put the election away, and that means bringing home Hillary Rodham Clinton’s voters. Women and seniors — two core groups that supported Clinton in the primaries — are waiting for the conventions to make up their minds and will likely be a huge part of the swing electorate watching the conventions. They are core television watchers and also have the highest economic anxiety. Read More About It Here.